Eurodolarul s-a intors din retracement de la minimul local @ 1,3793 si a strapuns rezistenta anuala de la 1,4000 iar cele 2 pozitii long deschise(una la inceputul saptamanii si a doua am adaugat-o astazi) mi–au adus un castig cumulat de +36 pipsi verzi 11,501 eurocenti.As fii putut lasa inca 10-20 de pipsi deschise cele 2 pozitii pentru a acumula si mai mult, dar rapoartele de piata SaxoBank indica posibilitatea unui nou reversal din zona 1,4025-50.

EUR/USD - long term forecast

Monthly graph

Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

Weekly graph

The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we shall examine daily graph for details). In the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285 and then, in the 5th wave, it will head to the maximum 1.4720 to update it (level 1.4720 update is assumed by the picture at daily graph as well as by the fact that “Y” trend line got broken). All these five waves will make up the “D-D+” uptrend; its extremum will be found at resistance level 1.4935 or 1.5300.

Daily graph

The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we should wait for a signal of “B-B+” trend’s turn). Upon “B-B+” trend line breaking and in the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285.

H4 graph

The pair is being traded along an uptrend having the target of growth set to resistance level 1.4100 (“E” trend line). There is a chance the pair can get over that level; in such case it will reach resistance 1.4400. But if the pair pushes off 1.4100 and starts to develop a downtrend, then level 1.3750 (“B-B+” uptrend’s lower bound) will become the target of dropping. But I’d rather not expect this scenario to play fast. The market won’t allow turning the uptrend easily, so we should wait for a trend-turning figure to be formed. If I tried to suppose what kind of figure it will be, I’d say it will be a “double top”.
Once again, I would like to accentuate that the pair may reach level 1.4400, that’s why selling should be considered only if a confident selling signal is formed.

Pe o piata flat din cauza sarbatorilor din USA si Marea Britanie am intrat cu un scalp long pe eurodolar in apropierea 100EMA pe graficul de 5 minute si am inchis cu doar +3 pipsi verzi 1,32 centi castig.

Ieri am verificat cu propriul cont 2 dintre cele mai raspandite greseli pe care le poate face un trader ,chiar si unul de nivel mediu cum pot spune ca sunt deja,respectiv ce inseamna a face revenge trading si overtrading dupa o serie lunga de tranzactii castigatoare si m-am aruncat in piata fara suficienta premarket analysis cu 3 pozitii 2 short pe EUR/USD si una long pe GBP/JPY si ca atare am cumulat pierderi totale de -165 pipsi rosii 73,952 centi ; randamentul contului real a trecut pe pierdere ,aceasta fiind de -1.03268 €.

PS: Vestea intr-adevar BUNA este ca ieri am gasit pe un forum asiatic un decompilator-recompilator pentru limbajul MQL4 asa ca de acum imi pot customiza toti indicatorii pentru platforma MetaTrader4 dupa necesitati!

Dintr-o greseala de judecata in privinta trendului pe eurodolar care in loc sa se consolideze intre 1,3500-1,3650 a rupt rezistenta majora din zona 1,3700-40 am luat 2 pozitii short pe EUR/USD si am incasat o pierdere cumulata de -298 pipsi rosii 1,34035$ care mi-a anulat tot ce am castigat pina acum in mai si am o pierdere in cont de -7,28% -23,660 centi.

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph

The pair has dropped below the important support at level 1.3450 (below the “Y” trend line), what speaks about the pair’s indecision of uptrend development. At the same time, the pair has broken the “B” up-trending line downwards, thus developing a downtrend. Variants of events to proceed are as follows:

Major: the pair resides under the “B” trend line and, after lowering below the level 1.3420, develops a confident downtrend aimed to drop to intermediate support 1.3285 and, as it is passed, to a major one – support 1.3135.

Alternative variant: if we suppose the market is “having fun” after breaking such an important “Y” trend line, then in case the pair rises above the level 1.3565, up-trending attitude will be resumed and reaching of target resistance level 1.3900 will become quite real.

Daily graph

The pair has dropped below the level 1.3450 (below the “Y” trend line), what speaks about the pair’s unwillingness to rise to target level 1.3900. Otherwise, the pair is likely to perform a correction to level 1.3135. If the pair rises above the level 1.3565, then uptrend aimed at 1.3900 will be resumed. On the other hand, if the pair drops below the level 1.3420, it will reach target level 1.3135.

Eurodolarul a inceput sa scada de vineri,din cauza reducerii apetitului la risc al investitorilor din pietele de actiuni,coborind de la 1,3651 pina inspre 1,3400 si in acest context am intrat cu 2 pozitii short din care am castigat cumulat +32 pipsi verzi 16,328 centi ; randamentul contului real este de +37,99% 1,22982 $ profit net.

Tranzactionarea intraday bazata pe urmarirea atenta a nivelelor semnificative pentru price action(suporti,rezistente,fibo,pivoti)mi-a adus in finalul saptamanii de tranzactionare inca +42 de pipsi verzi 19,385 centi din 2 pozitii long luate chiar cand pretul a urcat peste 100EMA pe graficul rapid de 5 minute cu confirmarea pe graficul lent de 1 ora pretul fiind deasupra 8,21EMA si respectiv 200SMA ; randamentul contului real a urcat astfel la +32,60% $1.05750 profit net.

EUR/USD forecast

    H4 graph

   The pair could not get over level 1.3700 so far. Pushing off daily downtrend line (purple), which is formed by supporting points of 07/15/07 and 12/18/08 (hence, it’s a very strong and important trend line), the pair found the support at level 1.3550 once again. During this process a “diamond” trend-continuing figure started to form.

   Primary variant of events to develop: the pair rises above 1.3730 (gets over the “diamond’s” higher bound); in such case it will reach an intermediate resistance 1.3910.

   Alternative variant: the pair gets under level 1.3440 (goes below the daily purple trend line, and then below the “B” trend line); in such case uptrend will be turned to downtrend and the pair’s dropping targets will be set to levels 1.3285 (intermediate support) and 1.3135 (higher bound of daily “flag” figure).

    Daily graph

    Level 1.3550 proved to be a key level. The pair’s rising above it led to development of a strong uptrend, having targets of growth set at intermediate resistance 1.3910, target level 1.4230 and then, possibly, at 1.4400. Support is currently at 1.3550.

Eurodolarul nu s-a putut mentine la maximul atins ieri la 1,3722 si a coborit inspre 1,3500 si ca atare am intrat in piata cu 2 pozitii short din care am castigat cumulat +21 pipsi verzi 9,844 centi ; randamentul contului real a urcat astfel la +26,12% 0,84723$ profit net.