My personal Forex trading log

Astazi am pus urmatoarele pozitii pending:3 shorts GBP/USD,cite unul AUD/USD,EUR/USD si EUR/JPY si respectiv o pozitie long USD/JPY din care pina acum(ora 10.10)s-au activat 3 shorts 2 pe GBP/USD si cel de pe AUD/USD ,unul dintre cele de pe GBP/USD fiind deja inchis la +10 pips 1.100 centi.

Update:Am inchis toate celelalte pozitii cu un castig cumulat de +29 pips 4,05 centi ; randamentul contului real este de +26.10% 1.36843$ profit net.

    H4 graph

   After the pair rebounded from key resistance 1.4260 (“E” trend line and the higher bound of “M-M+” daily trend), it broke the lower bound of “a-a+” uptrend (went below level 1.4200). This is an evidence of the beginning of downtrend development.

   A “diamond” figure is being formed now, which is supposed to be a turning figure and lead the pair to level 1.3990 under condition that it drops below 1.4110. Rebounding off resistance 1.4260 and breaking the “a-a+” trend both are speaking in favor of described scenario. Drop below 1.4110 will allow the pair to exit from “H-H+” uptrend and to drop further to level 1.3990. The pair will also pass level 1.4060 (“K” trend line) on its way down. After getting under all those levels, the market will have nothing left to do except dropping to support level 1.3930 (the lower bound of “M-M+” daily sideways trend). That’s why, we already can state that getting to level 1.3930 is just a question of time since an entire technical picture of EUR/USD is inclined to this variant.

   My advise is to sell the pair after it drops below level 1.4110, with target set to 1.3930/60 and stop loss set to 1.4190

   Daily graph (from 07.26.09)

   The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Such a huge accumulation of resistances as well as the pair’s exit from “B-B+” trend both are speaking about formation of the 4th correctional wave, which is supposed to have its target set down to accumulation of supports between 1.3285 and 1.3550.

   A “triangle” figure is observed at the graph now (it is formed by “K” and “M” trend lines). The pair has broken up above the higher bound of a “triangle”. Basically, this is speaking about the pair’s intention to rise to 1.46, but it is unlikely to happen because the market is set against key resistance 1.4260 (“E” trend line) as well as against the higher bound of a fresh “M-M+” sideways trend (these levels are showing a very strong resistance, which suppresses the pair’s upside). Therefore, this “triangle” will soon be converted to a “double top” figure having its bottom in the form of “M” trend line – the lower bound of “M-M+” daily sideways trend.

   We were given a first sign of trend’s turn – the rebound off resistance 1.4260. Another confirmative sign will be the pair’s drop below 1.4110. Next, downtrend will become more confident upon passing level 1.4000. Drop below level 1.3900 (around the lower bound of “M-M+”) will be a certain signal of further dropping to 1.3550 and, possibly, to 1.3285 in case 1.3550 doesn’t offer a decent support.

   Weekly graph (from 05.24.09)

   The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we shall examine daily graph for details). In the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285 and then, in the 5th wave, it will head to the maximum 1.4720 to update it (level 1.4720 update is assumed by the picture at daily graph as well as by the fact that “Y” trend line got broken). All these five waves will make up the “D-D+” uptrend; its extremum will be found at resistance level 1.4935 or 1.5300.

   Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

Pozitia short EUR/JPY deschisa saptamina trecuta s-a inchis la SL @ 1,7373 cu un castig de +21 pipsi 0.0133€ ; randamentul contului real este de +23.03% 1.20734$ profit net.

Update:Eurodolarul atingind un nivel de rezistenta @1,4264 am intrat cu 2 pozitii short din care am castigat cumulat +21 pipsi verzi 10,471 centi ; randamentul contului a urcat la +25.06% 1.31387$ profit net.

Pietele de capital au ajuns inca de ieri in zona maximelor istorice(DJIA la 9000-9100,S&P500 la 980-1000,NASDAQ la 1975-2000)asa ca unii investitori ar cam trebui sa inceapa sa-si marcheze din profiturile obtinute incepind cu luna martie a.c. si ca atare am intrat in piata cu mai multe pozitii short pe EUR/USD,EUR/AUD,EUR/CAD,EUR/JPY respectiv 2 pozitii long,pe AUD/USD si USD/JPY.Singura pozitie inchisa deocamdata este AUD/USD cu un castig de +11 pipsi verzi 6,050 centi ; randamentul contului real este de +22,02% profit net 1.15443$.

Update:am inchis shorturile pe EUR/JPY la +9 pips si pe EUR/USD la +7,castigand inca 3,355 centi,iar randamentul contului real a urcat la + 22.66% 1.18791 $ profit net.A ramas deschis doar un short pe EUR/AUD inca pe pierdere la -50 pips.

Astazi am facut doar 3 tranzactii , 2 longuri pe eurodolar si una short pe USD/JPY din care am castigat cumulat +31 pipsi verzi 3,435 centi ; randamentul contului real este de +20,87% $1.09445 profit net.

Eurodolarul si-a continuat evolutia din ultimele 2-3 zile intre suportul 1,4141 si rezistenta 1,4242,in asteptarea unui breakout in oricare dintre directii,dar avind un bias bullish am luat 3 pozitii long,2 pe EUR/USD si una pe EUR/JPY,din care am castigat cumulat +50 pipsi verzi 24,462 centi ; randamentul contului real este de +20,21% 1,05959 $ profit net.

Eurodolarul si-a continuat intarirea pina la un nou maxim @1,4249 dupa care a urmat firescul pullback pina catre 1,4180 si ca urmare am pus 2 pozitii ,una short si una long pe perechea EUR/USD din care am castiat cumulat +25 pipsi verzi ; randamentul contului real este de +24,25% 0.81126 € profit net.

H4 graph

   The pair had broken the higher bound of “diamond” figure (rose above level 1.4020), what cleared the road up to resistance level 1.4125 – where the pair is found now. According to such picture there are 2 variants of events to develop:

1. In case the pair grows above level 1.4150 (rises above “Q” trend line), it will get to resistance level 1.4250.

2. Taking to account the situation at daily graph, where the pair is trading along sideways trend, we see a possibility of drop from current level 1.4125 (rebound off “Q” trend line) to level 1.4000. If the pair continues dropping and falls below level 1.3925, it will get down to support 1.3840 and then to 1.3680.

Daily graph

   The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we should wait for a signal of “B-B+” trend’s turn). Upon “B-B+” trend line breaking and in the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285.

Weekly graph

   The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we shall examine daily graph for details). In the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285 and then, in the 5th wave, it will head to the maximum 1.4720 to update it (level 1.4720 update is assumed by the picture at daily graph as well as by the fact that “Y” trend line got broken). All these five waves will make up the “D-D+” uptrend; its extremum will be found at resistance level 1.4935 or 1.5300.

Monthly graph

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).