My personal Forex trading log

Astazi este zi nelucratoare bancara in Anglia si ca atare pietele financiare sunt destul de calme,eurodolarul avind inca un bias bullish am intrat cu 3 longuri pe EUR/USD din care am castigat cumulat +26 pips 19,282 centi.Randamentul contului pentru luna august este +10,60% 1.02797$ profit net(as fii avut cu mult mai mult daca nu faceam unele greseli in tranzactionare,despre care am vorbit in postarile respective).Ceea ce este important este faptul ca aceasta este a doua luna consecutiva in care obtin profit.

Graficul reprezinta o medie a ultimilor 60 de ani cu privire la inchiderea pe fiecare luna.

Este luat in calcul doar indicele S&P 500. Bara albastra se refera la inchiderea lunara, in timp ce bara gri se refera la o medie asupra inchiderilor zilnice din luna respectiva.

Atentie la Septembrie (si Octombrie)!

DJIA - sedinta extrem de volatila. mare parte datorata devalorizarii dolarului si cresterii de pret la petrol. Indicele a recuperat pierderea din deschiderea pietei. Desi datele vin bine, indicele nu reuseste inca sa inchida peste 9600.

Astazi eurodolarul a testat din nou zona 1,43-4375 si ca atare am intrat cu 3 pozitii long si 2 short(una tot pe eurodolar si cealalta EUR/CAD) din care am castigat cumulat +101 pips 16,96 centi,dar inchizind longul de pe GBP/JPY in pierdere la -55 pips -53,239 centi per ansamblu am pierdut 36,279 centi ; randamentul contului real este acum de +10.5% profit net 0.83128 $.

Ieri am luat 3 pozitii long ,2 pe eurodolar si una pe GBP/JPY(asta am deschis-o la sfatul unui amic ale carui strategii de tranzactionare le urmaresc pe forumul vamist.ro desi stiam ca NICIODATA nu trebuie sa deschizi pozitii la sfatul altuia) in ciuda faptului ca de citeva zile simteam clar ca rally-ul bullish din pietele de capital inceput in luna martie se apropie de sfarsit,si ca atare am pierdut cu margin call una dintre pozitiile pe eurodolar(pierdere de -126 pipsi rosii -€ 0.16831 ),apoi am recuperat +18 pipsi verzi € 0.01263 pe a doua pozitie,longul GBP/JPY fiind inca deschis cu o pierdere virtuala de -256 pips.

    H4 graph

   The pair is consolidating in the range between two levels, 1.4385 and 1.4225, at the crossing of “E” and “Z” trend lines. The market is still following sideways daily trend, for this reason we can expect it to touch either the higher or the lower trend boundary. As a result, there are currently 2 possible variants of events to proceed:

1. The pair rises above level 1.4385 (above the “a-a+” sideways trend) and gets to the higher bound of daily sideways trend, level 1.4490 (“C+” trend line).

2. The pair drops below level 1.4225 (red dotted line) and gets down to level 1.4075 (“P” trend line).

    Daily graph (from 08.09.09)

   The pair went below level 1.4300 (got under “E” and “Z” trend line), which was a precondition for reaching the first support – level 1.4100 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily uptrend, “B+” trend line).

   The market is lacking a stimulus to hold ground above level 1.4300 (this level was characterized as a strong resistance in previous forecast), which is evidence that the pair is looking for a strong support now. A strong support is supposed to be found at level 1.3850 (the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly sideways trend, “C” trend line.) But before hitting that level the market must confidently go below level 1.4100, which will be a signal, that daily downtrend has started to develop. An intermediate drop target is supposed to be found at support level 1.3850 and the target – at 1.3285.

   Next, before the pair starts to drop to level 1.3285, the pair must get under a very strong support 1.3850, made up by “C” and “D” trend lines. Correction is possible from that support to level 1.4100, and possibly to 1.4300 (if 1.4100 doesn’t resist decently). After the pair gets under level 1.3800, the first wave of weekly downtrend is supposed to start, having the drop target set to support level 1.3285.

Trend status: sideways
Resistance: 1.4300 (strong)
Support: 1.4100 (strong, but intermediate), 1.3850 (key).

   Weekly graph (from 05.24.09)

   The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we shall examine daily graph for details). In the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285 and then, in the 5th wave, it will head to the maximum 1.4720 to update it (level 1.4720 update is assumed by the picture at daily graph as well as by the fact that “Y” trend line got broken). All these five waves will make up the “D-D+” uptrend; its extremum will be found at resistance level 1.4935 or 1.5300.

   Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
  

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
  

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

Eurodolarul evolueaza in continuare in range intre suportul de la 1,4250-75 si rezistenta de la 1,4343 bias-ul pe pietele de actiuni fiind in continuare bullish asa ca am intrat din nou cu 3 pozitii long din care am acumulat +35 pipsi verzi 19,154 centi ; randamentul contului real a urcat la +17.77% profit net 1.40665 $.

Eurodolarul a atins vineri seara la 8.00PM un nou maxim @1,4376 dupa care s-a consolidat inspre zona 1,4250-1,4276 apoi a inceput sa retesteze rezistenta de la 1,43,si ca atare am cumparat din nou 2 pozitii long din care am castigat cumulat +30 pipsi verzi 16,422 centi ; randamentul contului real este de +15,23% profit net 1.20571 $.

“So heard this saying that in 1929, the dumb money went broke, in 1930 the smart money went broke, and in 1931, the smartest went broke.”