My personal Forex trading log

Eurodolarul se mentine in range destul de strins intre 1,4555 suport si 1,4628 rezistenta asa ca nu am riscat si am intrat cu un long inchis rapid la +11 pips 5,55 centi,ulterior am intrat short pe EUR/GBP unde am castigat +20 pips 16,714 centi,in total astazi am acumulat +31 pipsi verzi 22,214 centi; randamentul contului este de +9.14%  0.70023 € .

Astazi am luat 3 pozitii long,2 pe eurodolar si una pe USD/JPY din care am castigat in total +31 pips 16,897centi,iar randamentul contului real a urcat la +6.16% 0.47881€ .

H4 graph

   The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a local growth target at level 1.4635 (“F” trend line). In case that level is passed, the next target level will be set to resistance 1.4719 (2008.12.18 high). It’s also worth reminding that after the pair rose above level 1.4550, it had broken the higher bound of an “up-trending triangle” figure, so the strategic target of the pair is now set to resistance level 1.4935.

   If any correction happens, the pair is supposed to find the support at level 1.4515. Then the growth towards 1.4635 will be resumed. Otherwise, if the pair drops below level 1.4465, we can state the trend’s turn and the first local dropping target will be set to level 1.4355 (“E” trend line).

Daily graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading along the “C-C+” weekly sideways trend between key levels 1.4500 (resistance) and 1.3900 (support). The trend is formed at crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935. Looking into the “D-D+” trend, the pair is still trading along an uptrend. Level 1.4175 is crossed by the lower bound of the “flag” figure formed by “C2-C+” trend lines, which provides a temporary support.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
  

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
  

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

In ciuda asteptarilor mele de trend reversal pentru EUR/USD ,deocamdata sentimentul investitorilor este pozitiv cresterii actiunilor cat si valutelor altele decat dolarul asa ca am urmat trendul inceput vineri si am luat 2 pozitii long pe eurodolar si apoi una short din care am castigat cumulat +28 pipsi verzi 19,48 centi ; randamentul contului real este de +3.99% 0.30900 € .

Dupa ce vineri noaptea am inchis pe pierdere 2 pozitii short pe EUR/USD si USD/JPY cu o pierdere cumulata de -109 pipsi rosii 13,989 centi,astazi am revenit la cumparare cu 5 pozitii long,3 pe eurodolar si 2 pe USD/JPY din care am castigat cumulat +20 pipsi verzi 3,123 centi(sincer mi-e destul de frica sa las deschisa orice pozitie in aceasta zona de rezistenta puternica dintre 1,4350-1,4450,fiindca m-as putea pomeni in orice moment cu un price reversal!) ; randamentul contului real este de +3,16% profit net 0.33857 $.

Datele NFP pentru august au iesit mixte(noi someri +216000 fata de estimarea de +223000,rata somajului a crescut la +9,7%(estimarea era de +9,5%)maximul ultimilor 26 de ani,iar media castigurilor salariale orare raportata la luna precedenta a castigat +0,3% fata de +0,1% estimarea)iar piata asteapta mai multe de la G20;cele 3 pozitii short,2 pe USD/JPY si una pe eurodolar deschise de dimineata mi-au adus un castig cumulat de +29 pips 9,729 centi.

Cotatia aurului a reusit sa atinga maximele din februarie unde va intampina si o puternica rezistenta in zona 1000. O trecere peste pragul de 1000 va conduce la noi maxime.

Dolarul si yenul si–au continuat intarirea inceputa ieri,astfel ca am luat 3 shorturi din care 2 pe eurodolar si 1 pe EUR/JPY din care am castigat cumulat +37 pipsi verzi 20,769 centi ; randamentul contului real este de +3.44% 0.36900 $.

H4 graph

   The pair keeps trading along a sideways trend (“O-O+”) between two key levels – 1.4390 (a very strong resistance) and 1.4215 (turning level). This trend is transforming into a “triangle” figure, which is being formed now and has its top at level 1.4425, where the 4th wave of this figure is supposed to emerge. Basically, we may consider the figure as such that will turn the sideways trend either upwards or downwards, so we should take the levels into consideration anyway.

   There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair breaks above level 1.4425, the “triangle” figure may be treated as an uptrend-continuing figure. This way, the market sets the target of growth to level 1.4580. However, there is a very strong resistance on the way up – level 1.4500 (the higher boundary of “C-C+” sideways trend weekly). So, we may try to open buy positions above 1.4425, then it is necessary to close them right before approaching 1.4500 and buy additionally only upon break above ~1.4545.

2. The “triangle” figure is becoming the figure bearing a downtrend in case the pair breaks below level 1.4215 (gets below “B”  and “O” trend lines); in such case the pair will get to essential support 1.4085 (“P” trend lines).

Personal prejudice:

   I wouldn’t trade for buying while the pair is located above level 1.4545, since there are a whole lot of important resistances, which won’t let the market to pass them easily – the market is going to twitch. It is more secure to sell after drop below level 1.4215 with the target set to 1.4085.

Daily graph (from 08.09.09)

   The pair went below level 1.4300 (got under “E” and “Z” trend line), which was a precondition for reaching the first support – level 1.4100 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily uptrend, “B+” trend line).

   The market is lacking a stimulus to hold ground above level 1.4300 (this level was characterized as a strong resistance in previous forecast), which is evidence that the pair is looking for a strong support now. A strong support is supposed to be found at level 1.3850 (the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly sideways trend, “C” trend line.) But before hitting that level the market must confidently go below level 1.4100, which will be a signal, that daily downtrend has started to develop. An intermediate drop target is supposed to be found at support level 1.3850 and the target – at 1.3285.

   Next, before the pair starts to drop to level 1.3285, the pair must get under a very strong support 1.3850, made up by “C” and “D” trend lines. Correction is possible from that support to level 1.4100, and possibly to 1.4300 (if 1.4100 doesn’t resist decently). After the pair gets under level 1.3800, the first wave of weekly downtrend is supposed to start, having the drop target set to support level 1.3285.

Trend status: sideways
Resistance: 1.4300 (strong)
Support: 1.4100 (strong, but intermediate), 1.3850 (key).

Weekly graph (from 05.24.09)

   The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we shall examine daily graph for details). In the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285 and then, in the 5th wave, it will head to the maximum 1.4720 to update it (level 1.4720 update is assumed by the picture at daily graph as well as by the fact that “Y” trend line got broken). All these five waves will make up the “D-D+” uptrend; its extremum will be found at resistance level 1.4935 or 1.5300.

Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
  

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
  

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).