My personal Forex trading log

Dupa un drawdown semnificativ in care am pierdut din 4 pozitii -845 pipsi rosii -3,88 $ ( asta pentru ca nu am estimat corect punctul de reversal al apetitului pentru risc in pietele globale, fapt care a dus la intarirea dolarului american fata de euro de la maximul anului @ 1,5063 atins pe 26 octombrie pina la un nou minim local @1,4683 astazi),astazi am revenit in piata cu 4 pozitii long pe retracementul firesc la eurodolar din care am castigat cumulat +47 pipsi verzi 9,98 centi.

   H4 graph

   The pair is still trading along the “a-a+” uptrend in transition to a minor sideways trend. Level 1.5020 (b trendline) resists upside intentions.

We cannot confirm the continuation of upside momentum unless the pair breaks resistance 1.5100 (this way the pair will attempt to get to 1.5284).

If the uptrend keeps losing its strength and the pair retreats below level 1.4900, a correction will start and EURUSD will head to support level 1.4700 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily trend).

Daily graph (from 10.22.09)

The pair is trading along the “B-B+” uptrend having the upside target set to a very strong resistance, level 1.5284.

If the pair continues its upside above level 1.5100, we may count on the trend’s continuation.

In case the pair drops below level 1.4900, it will retreat to support 1.4700 (B trendline). If the pair will then stay above that support, we may count on the uptrend’s continuation having the upside target set to 1.5284 (so drop to level 1.4700 will prove to be a correctional wave).

If the pair drops below level 1.4700 (confirming that the “B-B+” daily uptrend is over), it will find a whole series of supports below, ending with key support 1.4450. In case the pair will drop below that key support, it will get to level 1.4100, and further to 1.3550 (we will discuss it later).

   Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

   Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

Astazi am pus doar 3 pozitii short pe eurodolar din care am castigat cumulat +38 pipsi verzi 29,78 centi.

Eurodolarul este intr-o usoara corectie inspre 1,49-1,4850 si ca atare am mers cu piata si am pus 3 shorturi din care am castigat cumulat +32 pipsi verzi 18,23 centi,apoi 2 longuri din care am mai castigat +28 pipsi verzi 13,84 centi;in total acumulind +60 pips 32,07 centi.

Aseara am pus 4 pozitii cu ordine pending,2 longuri pe EUR/USD si AUD/USD respectiv 2 shorturi pe EUR/JPY si USD/JPY.In afara de eurodolar,toate celelalte s-au activat si am inchis longul pe AUD/USD cu un castig de +55 pipsi verzi 18,15 centi,celelalte doua ordine deschise sunt inca pe pierdere.

Astazi am inchis pozitia short pe eurodolar deschisa @ 1,4526 in pierdere de -350 pips 3,8850 $(motivul a fost bias-ul clar bullish al euro din ultimul timp,acesta indreptindu-se destul de clar spre 1,5)si ca atare am o pierdere in cont de -22,43% -3.41734 $ .In restul de timp din aceasta luna mi-am propus ca obiectiv recuperarea acestei pierderi,asa incat sa ies macar la breakeven la sfarsitul lunii.

Eurodolarul s-a stabilizat intr-o range de vreo 150 de pipsi(suport la 1,4662 rezistenta la 1,4774)asa ca astazi am intrat cu doar 2 pozitii long din care am castigat cumulat +27 pipsi verzi 14,41 centi ; randamentul contului este de +8.94% 0.46766 $ .

Dupa ce ieri am decis sa inchid unul dintre cele 2 pozitii short pe eurodolar la o pierdere de -220 pips -41,8 centi,astazi am luat alte 2 shorturi mai sus in zona 1,47 - 4727 pe unul l-am inchis deja cu un castig de +9 pips 2,070 centi iar celalalt il mai tin sa atinga targetul initial@1,4696.

Pozitia long luata ieri pe eurodolar @1,4693 s-a inchis azi-noapte @1,4748 cu un castig de +55 pipsi verzi 42,35 centi.Astazi am mai pus doua ordine pending ,un long pe eurodolar si un short pe yen.

Datele NFP pentru septembrie au iesit proaste(-263000 noi someri fata de -188000 asteptarea pietei si -201000 luna august),dar decizia surpriza a RBA de a ridica rata de dobinda de referinta pentru dolarul australian de la 3% la 3,25% precum si propunerea de inlocuire a dolarului american ca moneda in tranzactiile cu petrol cu aurul in urmatorii noua ani pina in 2018(tarile BRIC,Consiliul de Cooperare al Golfului incluzind Abu Dhabi,Arabia Saudita,Qatar si Kuweit,dar si Japonia si Franta)au dus cotatia eurodolarului de la un minim de 1,4480 vinerea trecuta la un maxim de 1,4761,am intrat gresit cu 2 pozitii short in zona 1,4550 pe care am o pierdere nemarcata de vreo 200 de pipsi,si astazi am luat un long @1,4717 pe care l-am inchis @1,4730 cu un castig de +13 pipsi verzi 2,6 centi.Sa vedem cat mai rezista euro in overbought,senzatia mea este ca va face un dublu top catre precedentul high @ 1,4846 si apoi o va lua la vale citeva sute de pipsi…..ramane de vazut.