My personal Forex trading log

Astazi am pus 5 pozitii short,4 pe eurodolar si una pe yen din care am obtinut cumulat +42 pipsi verzi +27,608 centi dar pentru ca am inchis pozitia long pe yen la atingerea SL cu o pierdere de -50 pipsi rosii -55,107 centi,astfel ca de fapt am pierdut din castigul realizat pina astazi,si ca urmare mai am un randament de +2.13% 0.31112 $ .

Astazi am pus 3 pozitii,1 short pe EUR/USD @ 1,4828 si respectiv 2 long pe USD/CAD @ 1,0500 si USD/JPY @ 88,5 din care am castigat cumulat +20 pipsi verzi 18,339 centi(pentru USD/CAD +0,20R iar pentru EUR/USD +0,23R),pozitia long pe yen este inca pending(daca se activeaza o voi folosi pentru a face hedging cu mai vechiul short pe yen la care am inca o pierdere de -70 pips) ; randamentul contului real este actualmente de +3,39% 0.49609 $ .

Dupa anuntarea datelor NFP de vinerea trecuta,dolarul american s-a intarit destul de mult fata de euro,astfel a coborit de la 1,5092 pina la un nou minim local 1,4756 astazi si ca atare am folosit o strategie buy on dips luind o pozitie long @ 1,4807 cu SL initial @ 1,4774 si cu TP @1,4848 si pe care am inchis-o @ 1,4828 cu un castig de +21 pipsi verzi 20,79 centi +0,63R castig ; randamentul contului real a urcat astfel la +2,14% 0.31270 $ .

Datele NFP pentru luna noiembrie au indicat un somaj in scadere fata de luna precedenta la 10% de la 10,2% si doar 11000 de noi someri fata de  previziunea analistilor de 119000 noi someri si in scadereevidenta fata de luna octombrie de la 111000 noi someri,dar dolarul american a inceput sa se intareasca fata de mai toate valutele asa ca am pus 2 pozitii short ,una pe eurodolar si cealalta pe yen ,pe prima am inchis-o cu un castig de +28 pipsi verzi 5,88 centi,iar cea de-a doua este pe pierdere de -200 pips,asa ca voi astepta citeva zile sa vad in ce directie evolueaza sentimentul investitorilor.

Astazi am castigat + 36 pipsi verzi 4,6 centi din 4 pozitii short pe eurodolar ; randamentul contului real este de+ 0,36% 0.04600 $ .

 H4 graph

After rapid upside lately the pair didn’t manage to update level 1.5061, which speaks about a potential of continuation of sideways trend’s forming within the range between levels 1.5050 (support) and 1.4875 (resistance).

Currently the market is closing at a temporary support level 1.4955, but as long as it stays below 1.5050 and above 1.4955 it resides a neutral zone.

Therefore, there are 2 variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the pair drops below level 1.4955, it will head to a key support 1.4875. Next, in the prospects, if the market will manage to get under that support, it will go to an intermediate support 1.4790, and further to 1.4650 (basically, the market tends to go this way).
2. If the pair rises above resistance level 1.5050, it will get to level 1.5125, and probably even to 1.5200.

Trading recommendations:
Sell below 1.4955 with the target at 1.4875.
Buy above 1.5050 with the target at 1.5125.

Daily graph (from 11.17.09)

The pair is trading within a range between levels 1.5061 (current high) and 1.4710 (support).

1. In case the pair drops below 1.4710, it will get down to support 1.4550 (the lower bound of “E-E+” weekly uptrend). Getting under 1.4710 also implies possible drop below 1.4550, so, if the pair gets under 1.4550, it will set its target at level 1.4130.

2. If the pair rises above level 1.5061, the next growth target will be set at resistance level 1.5285 (on my graphs it is a key level over all time frames).

Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).