EUR/USD forecast

How to use forecast

18 November 2009

 H4 graph

The pair is trading within triangle (H-L). The range of the triangle is seen between levels 1.4990 (resistance) and 1.4825 (support). Taking this into consideration, events may evolve in two variants:

1. In case the pair drops below level 1.4825 (“L” trendline), it will get to support 1.4710 (blue trendline). Getting under level 1.4825 also implies possibility of dropping at support 1.4550 (the lower bound of “E-E+” weekly uptrend). Level 1.4710 may offer a temporary support; in case of rebound from it the pair will find resistance at level 1.4825, after which it will test 1.4710 again. If the pair will eventually pass level 1.4710, it will get down to key support 1.4550.

2. The pair fails dropping below level 1.4825. In this case the market will be trading at the same range until Variant #1 takes effect or until the pair overcomes resistance 1.4990 (“H” trendline). In the latter case the pair will reach level 1.5061 (current high) and, if upside persists, it will head to 1.5200.

Daily graph (from 11.17.09)

The pair is trading within a range between levels 1.5061 (current high) and 1.4710 (support).

1. In case the pair drops below 1.4710, it will get down to support 1.4550 (the lower bound of “E-E+” weekly uptrend). Getting under 1.4710 also implies possible drop below 1.4550, so, if the pair gets under 1.4550, it will set its target at level 1.4130.

2. If the pair rises above level 1.5061, the next growth target will be set at resistance level 1.5285 (on my graphs it is a key level over all time frames).

Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

   H4 graph

   The pair is still trading along the “a-a+” uptrend in transition to a minor sideways trend. Level 1.5020 (b trendline) resists upside intentions.

We cannot confirm the continuation of upside momentum unless the pair breaks resistance 1.5100 (this way the pair will attempt to get to 1.5284).

If the uptrend keeps losing its strength and the pair retreats below level 1.4900, a correction will start and EURUSD will head to support level 1.4700 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily trend).

Daily graph (from 10.22.09)

The pair is trading along the “B-B+” uptrend having the upside target set to a very strong resistance, level 1.5284.

If the pair continues its upside above level 1.5100, we may count on the trend’s continuation.

In case the pair drops below level 1.4900, it will retreat to support 1.4700 (B trendline). If the pair will then stay above that support, we may count on the uptrend’s continuation having the upside target set to 1.5284 (so drop to level 1.4700 will prove to be a correctional wave).

If the pair drops below level 1.4700 (confirming that the “B-B+” daily uptrend is over), it will find a whole series of supports below, ending with key support 1.4450. In case the pair will drop below that key support, it will get to level 1.4100, and further to 1.3550 (we will discuss it later).

   Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

   Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

Isi mai aduce aminte cineva de Lehman Brothers?

Exact acum 1 an a 4a banca de investitii de pe Wall Street,Lehman Brothers,falimenta datorita expunerii prea mari la creditele neperformante subprime,ceea ce a declansat actuala criza economico-financiara.Cu ce ne-am ales dupa acest timp?Iata ce sustine astazi un articol din NY Times:

Slide-ul incepe de la o capitalizare de $ 1,87 Trilion si continua pana in bottomul din februarie unde se ajunge la o capitalizare de $ 290 Bill , dupa care avem parte de un rebound puternic pentru a atinge azi o capitalizare de $ 947 Bill .Se observa deleverage de aproximativ -50% fata de momentul inceputului crizei,precum si consolidarea pietei financiare dupa falimentele din 2008 si 2009(25 de banci anul trecut,respectiv 89 anul acesta pina pe 4 septembrie).

H4 graph

   The pair is trading along the uptrend, which has a local growth target at level 1.4635 (“F” trend line). In case that level is passed, the next target level will be set to resistance 1.4719 (2008.12.18 high). It’s also worth reminding that after the pair rose above level 1.4550, it had broken the higher bound of an “up-trending triangle” figure, so the strategic target of the pair is now set to resistance level 1.4935.

   If any correction happens, the pair is supposed to find the support at level 1.4515. Then the growth towards 1.4635 will be resumed. Otherwise, if the pair drops below level 1.4465, we can state the trend’s turn and the first local dropping target will be set to level 1.4355 (“E” trend line).

Daily graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading along the “C-C+” weekly sideways trend between key levels 1.4500 (resistance) and 1.3900 (support). The trend is formed at crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935. Looking into the “D-D+” trend, the pair is still trading along an uptrend. Level 1.4175 is crossed by the lower bound of the “flag” figure formed by “C2-C+” trend lines, which provides a temporary support.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)

   The pair is trading within the “D-D+” uptrend and is set against crossing of monthly and weekly trend lines “E” (the lower bound of monthly sideways trend) and “Z” (weekly trend line). By touching those trend lines, the pair gains an opportunity either to rebound from them towards level 1.3285 or to rise above them to resistance level 1.4935.

   Taking into consideration the present picture, two variants of events to proceed are seen:
1. In case the pair rises above level 1.4500, it will get to resistance 1.4935. In such case the “up-trending triangle” figure will be executed.
2. In case the pair drops below level 1.4175, it will retreat to support 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” trend). And on drop below 1.3900 (quit from “C-C+” and “D-D+” trends), it will get down to key support 1.3285.

Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
  

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
  

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

Cotatia aurului a reusit sa atinga maximele din februarie unde va intampina si o puternica rezistenta in zona 1000. O trecere peste pragul de 1000 va conduce la noi maxime.

H4 graph

   The pair keeps trading along a sideways trend (“O-O+”) between two key levels – 1.4390 (a very strong resistance) and 1.4215 (turning level). This trend is transforming into a “triangle” figure, which is being formed now and has its top at level 1.4425, where the 4th wave of this figure is supposed to emerge. Basically, we may consider the figure as such that will turn the sideways trend either upwards or downwards, so we should take the levels into consideration anyway.

   There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair breaks above level 1.4425, the “triangle” figure may be treated as an uptrend-continuing figure. This way, the market sets the target of growth to level 1.4580. However, there is a very strong resistance on the way up – level 1.4500 (the higher boundary of “C-C+” sideways trend weekly). So, we may try to open buy positions above 1.4425, then it is necessary to close them right before approaching 1.4500 and buy additionally only upon break above ~1.4545.

2. The “triangle” figure is becoming the figure bearing a downtrend in case the pair breaks below level 1.4215 (gets below “B”  and “O” trend lines); in such case the pair will get to essential support 1.4085 (“P” trend lines).

Personal prejudice:

   I wouldn’t trade for buying while the pair is located above level 1.4545, since there are a whole lot of important resistances, which won’t let the market to pass them easily – the market is going to twitch. It is more secure to sell after drop below level 1.4215 with the target set to 1.4085.

Daily graph (from 08.09.09)

   The pair went below level 1.4300 (got under “E” and “Z” trend line), which was a precondition for reaching the first support – level 1.4100 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily uptrend, “B+” trend line).

   The market is lacking a stimulus to hold ground above level 1.4300 (this level was characterized as a strong resistance in previous forecast), which is evidence that the pair is looking for a strong support now. A strong support is supposed to be found at level 1.3850 (the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly sideways trend, “C” trend line.) But before hitting that level the market must confidently go below level 1.4100, which will be a signal, that daily downtrend has started to develop. An intermediate drop target is supposed to be found at support level 1.3850 and the target – at 1.3285.

   Next, before the pair starts to drop to level 1.3285, the pair must get under a very strong support 1.3850, made up by “C” and “D” trend lines. Correction is possible from that support to level 1.4100, and possibly to 1.4300 (if 1.4100 doesn’t resist decently). After the pair gets under level 1.3800, the first wave of weekly downtrend is supposed to start, having the drop target set to support level 1.3285.

Trend status: sideways
Resistance: 1.4300 (strong)
Support: 1.4100 (strong, but intermediate), 1.3850 (key).

Weekly graph (from 05.24.09)

   The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we shall examine daily graph for details). In the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285 and then, in the 5th wave, it will head to the maximum 1.4720 to update it (level 1.4720 update is assumed by the picture at daily graph as well as by the fact that “Y” trend line got broken). All these five waves will make up the “D-D+” uptrend; its extremum will be found at resistance level 1.4935 or 1.5300.

Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
  

   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
  

   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).

Graficul reprezinta o medie a ultimilor 60 de ani cu privire la inchiderea pe fiecare luna.

Este luat in calcul doar indicele S&P 500. Bara albastra se refera la inchiderea lunara, in timp ce bara gri se refera la o medie asupra inchiderilor zilnice din luna respectiva.

Atentie la Septembrie (si Octombrie)!

DJIA - sedinta extrem de volatila. mare parte datorata devalorizarii dolarului si cresterii de pret la petrol. Indicele a recuperat pierderea din deschiderea pietei. Desi datele vin bine, indicele nu reuseste inca sa inchida peste 9600.

Ieri am luat 3 pozitii long ,2 pe eurodolar si una pe GBP/JPY(asta am deschis-o la sfatul unui amic ale carui strategii de tranzactionare le urmaresc pe forumul vamist.ro desi stiam ca NICIODATA nu trebuie sa deschizi pozitii la sfatul altuia) in ciuda faptului ca de citeva zile simteam clar ca rally-ul bullish din pietele de capital inceput in luna martie se apropie de sfarsit,si ca atare am pierdut cu margin call una dintre pozitiile pe eurodolar(pierdere de -126 pipsi rosii -€ 0.16831 ),apoi am recuperat +18 pipsi verzi € 0.01263 pe a doua pozitie,longul GBP/JPY fiind inca deschis cu o pierdere virtuala de -256 pips.