TRAIAN

W.D. Gann a fost renumit pentru predictiile sale privind estimarea corecta a datelor si preturile la care se putea schimba trendul actiunilor sau marfurilor din acea perioada. Tehnica sa include geometrie, matematici si astro-cicluri. Pentru a folosi aceste metode este recomandat ca softul folosit sa contina cele mai renumite instrumente folosite de marele analist, cel care dupa crahul din anul 1929 castiga 50 mil $. Acum desigur ca acesta suma nu spune prea mult pentru unii investitori insa cine doreste sa faca o comparatie trebuie sa aiba in vedere ca atunci o casa se cumpara cu 1500$.

Unele softuri folosesc limitativ doar “unghiurile Gann” dar acestea nu sunt prea bine trasate. De fapt metodele Gann cele mai des folosite sunt : unghiurile geometrice, impartirea seriilor, cei 7 timpi de baza, patratele, patratele numerelor naturale 52, 90, 120, 144, 360.

De asemenea munca de predictie folosita de Gann presupune si studierea ciclurilor si aspectelor planetare.
Pentru reusita trebuie sa testezi fiecare tehnica descrisa de acesta in cartile sale, s-o cunosti foarte bine si de abia dupa aceea s-o introduci in sistemul tau de investitii daca aceasta corespunde cel mai bine cu profilul tau de investitor.

Aceia care au studiat cursurile si cartile lui Gann si apoi au aplicat metodele sale la situatia actuala au putut sa-si dea seama de acuratetea rezultatelor metodelor folosite. Nu este nici un secret sau mister in aceste metode insa este clar ca cei care nu au reusit sa le aplice cu succes le-au contestat apoi foarte mult.

De aceea este bine de stiut inainte de a le cunoaste daca sunteti adeptul nonconformismului si de abia dupa aceea sa va apucati serios sa studiati tehnicile acestui mare analist.

Desigur ca in cursurile sale el detaliaza cel mai mult cum aplica ciclicitatea unui an, care este familiar traderilor si poate cea mai folosita dintre metodele lui Gann pe langa patratul lui 9. Gann arata ca ciclul unui an este un CICLU MINOR. Aceia care folosesc acest ciclu in investitiile lor stiu valoarea lui de previziune dar si limitele sale.

De fapt Gann prezinta mai putine informatii despre alte cicluri mai puternice decat ciclul minor si aceasta ramane sa fie studiat mai mult din cartile acestuia.
Revenind la ciclul unui an, pentru a estima un rebound trebuie sa incepem sa ne focalizam deja pe luna 42 sau 43. Exista un numar de cicluri care culmineaza in perioada dintre luna 41 si luna 43. Insa aceste calcule pot aprecia ziua exacta numai prin folosirea celor mai importante cicluri de PRET si TIMP.

Prin folosirea acestor cicluri de PRET se poate cunoaste nivelul exact al pretului de unde piata va face un rebound. Gann detaliaza informatiile numai pentru ciclul minor fara a oferi in cursurile si cartile sale prea multe date despre informatiile mai importante. Dupa moartea sa au existat unii analisti care au reusit sa descopere si aceste elemente importante pentru a reusi o predictie bazata pe analiza ciclurilor bursiere.

Dintre acestia as enumera pe M. Jenkins si Charles Shephard. Voi incepe cu cel din urma care este de origine din Marea Britanie si care a scris cartea “Gann Cycles”. Cartea este de fapt un manual de analiza despre TIMP si PRET si reflecta in detaliu metodele lui Gann.

Mi-a atras atentia un discurs al lui Gann din anul 1909 care explica de fapt fundamentul pe care se bazeaza el in estimarea/predictia actiunilor si marfurilor si pe care il voi reda exact …

Gann’s 1909 Ticker Interview
THE TICKER AND INVESTMENT DIGEST
(later became the Wall Street Journal)
Vol. 5 DECEMBER 1909 No.2
William D. Gann
An Operator Whose Science and Ability Place Him in the Front Rank
His Remarkable Predictions and Trading Records.

“The law of vibration was at work, sending a particular stock on the upward trend whilst others were trending downward.”

“I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and also, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in the majority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions.”

“The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental law of vibration. Science teaches that ‘an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also, just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the rose of spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises.”

“From my extensive investigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do the various stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling the stocks are also in a state of vibration. These vibratory forces can only be known by the movements they generate on the stocks and their values in the market. Since all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic, they act in accordance with periodic law.”

“Science has laid down the principle that the properties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight. A famous scientist has stated that ‘we are brought to the conviction that diversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is most intimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers are not intermixed accidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes and developments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd.”

Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature or on the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.

“If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday said, “There is nothing in the universe but mathematical points of force.”

“Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt from this law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe.”

Through the law of vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration. Stocks, like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they are controlled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power: power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and ‘turn dead’ at other times. Thus, to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follow natural law.

“After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market.”

Interesanta teorie NU ? Eu unul sunt de acord cu ea deoarece am experimentat-o. Daca cei care cititi aceste randuri sunteti de acord cu teoria lui Gann vom continua cu prezentarea daca nu … ma voi rezuma la studiul individual al metodelor de forecasting …

Deci astept un raspuns din partea voastra, a cititorilor pasionati de AT adevarat si REAL pentru a continua si practic.

Va doresc mult succes ca traderi adevarati